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Predictions Based on Mathematical Model of COVID-19 in India: A Case Study of India

Preeti Deshwal, Neetu Gupta


A huge loss has been observed throughout the world in terms of economy, manpower and resources due to COVID-19 pandemic. A severe outbreak of corona virus has led 10,245,326 confirmed cases and 148,475 deaths in India till 30th December2020. Scientists and researchers are pushing them hard to understand the virus in depth and discover a vaccine. In this paper, we have proposed SEIRD model to make future predictions about disease spread in India. Lots of COVID -19 data is available online. We have analyzed data sets of COVID-19 in India using R studio and calculated the parameters used in the proposed model. Using the parameters in SEIRD model, we have implemented the model into Mat Lab and made predictions. These predictions are based on the assumptions that current conditions of corona virus continue although conditions are going to be change very soon. This study can help in hospital planning, resource management and take fruitful initiatives to change the situation nowadays.

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