A Join-Point Regression Analysis of Cause-Specific Mortality in India
Abstract
The changes in trend of mortality provide valuable information for assessment, planning and development of health policies for the population of a country. Here, we have applied join-point regression model to determine significant changes in the trend of mortality due to circulatory diseases, infection & parasite diseases, and respiratory diseases in India. The current study focuses on cause specific death rates in India across various age groups. A join-point regression model is used to determine the significant changes that adequately explain the relationship between two variables. Data on various cause-specific mortality rates are derived from India's medical certification of cause of death (MCCD) report for the period 2008-2019. The join-point analysis revealed that the trend of mortality due to respiratory diseases significantly changed twice in the year 2010 and 2013 for both sexes. No significant changes were found in the overall mortality rates in circulatory and infectious diseases. However, one significant change was observed in females in the year 2013 in infectious and parasitic disease(s). Further, using the Lee-carter model we have forecasted the age-adjusted mortality rates for the period 2020-2025. An increasing trend was observed for all these cause specific mortality rates. These results are important for planning and will guide the demographers and policy makers to regulate population health policies.
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