IJSREG Trion Studio

No Publication Cost

Vol 7, No 3 :

subscription

Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy Based on Financial Ratios using Binary Logistic Regression
Joginder Kumar , Vinod Kumar , Deepika Verma , Somy Sharma
Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop a corporate financial distress prediction model based on financial ratios for listed companies across various sectors in India using binary logistic regression technique. For this, 51 companies listed on Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and/or National Stock Exchange (NSE) has been chosen as a sample study. The selected companies were bifurcated in two groups based on financial ratios. The explanatory variables were divided into four categories such as liquidity, solvency, efficiency and profitability ratios based on standard practices followed by financial analysts to draw reliable insights. The t-test was used to check the statistical significance of each independent variable for two groups that is insolvent and solvent. The results of t-test were found statistically non-significant (p>0.05) at 5% level of significance in case of fixed assets turnover ratio, interest coverage ratio, number of days in working capital ratio, quick ratio and return on net worth ratio where as others independent variables were found statistically significant (p<0.05).The variance inflation factor (VIF) was used for measuring multicollinearity. The independent variables having VIF value less than 5 were used for fitting binary logistic regression model to predict the corporate financial distress. The forecast strength of the logistic regression model was found 96.80% and the goodness of fit of the model was checked by using the Hosmer and Lemeshow test. It is found that the interest coverage ratio, net profit margin and number of days in working capital ratio are significant predictors of corporate insolvency. The findings of the present study can be used to assist in financial decision-making for various stakeholders.
Full Text
PDF
References
Bhunia; R. Sarkar; A Study of Financial Distress based on MDA, Journal of Management Research, 3(2) 1-11 (2011).
C. F. Yap; M. H. M. Helmi; S. Munuswamy; J-R. Yap; The Predictive Abilities of Financial Ratios in Predicting Company Failure in Malaysia Using a Classic Univariate Approach, Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(8) 930-938 (2011).
C. F. Yap; S. Munuswamy; Z. B. Mohamed; Evaluating Company Failure in Malaysia Using Financial Ratios and Logistic Regression, Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4(1) 330-344 (2012).
I. Altman; Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy, The Journal of Finance, 23(4) 589-609 (1968).
J. A. Ohlson; Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy, Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1) 109-131 (1980).
J. Begley; J. Ming; S. Watts; Bankruptcy Classification Errors in the Altman’s and Ohlson’s Models, Review of Accounting Studies, 1(4) 267-284 (1996).
J. Holmen; Using Financial Ratios to Predict Bankruptcy: An Evaluation of Classic Models Using Recent Evidence, Akron Business and Economic Review, 19(1) 52-63 (1988)
K. Agrawal; Y. Maheshwari; Efficacy of Industry Factors for Corporate Default Prediction, IIMB Management Review, 31 71-77 (2019).
K. F. Zohra; B. Mohamed; T. Elhamoud; M. Garaibeh; A. Illhem; H. Naimi; Using Financial Ratios to Predict Financial Distress of Jordanian Industrial Firms - ''Empirical Study Using Logistic Regression'', Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 4(2) 136-142 (2015).
M. H. Keener; Predicting the Financial Failure of Retail Companies in the United States, Journal of Business & Economics Research, 11(8) 373-380 (2013).
M. Hassani; N. Parsadmehr; The Presentation of Financial Crisis Forecast Pattern (Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange), International Journal of Finance and Accounting, 1(6) 142-147 (2012).
M. Maricica; V. Georgeta; Business Failure Risk Analysis using Financial Ratios, Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 62 728-732 (2012).
M. N. Alifiah; Prediction of Financial Distress Companies in the Trading and Services Sector in Malaysia Using Macroeconomic Variables, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 129 90-98 (2014).
Mondal; D. Roy; Financial Indicators of Corporate Sickness: A Study of Indian Steel Industry, South Asian Journal of Management, 20(2) 85 (2013).
Mraihi; Distressed Company Prediction Using Logistic Regression: Tunisian’s Case, Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 15(3) 16-33 (2015).
N. VenkataRamana; S. M. Azash; K. Ramakrishnaiah;Financial Performance and Predicting the Risk of Bankruptcy: A Case of Selected Cement Companies in India, International Journal of Public Administration and Management Research, 1(1) 40-56 (2012).
Ogachi; R. Ndege; P. Gaturu; Z. Zoltan; Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Model, a Special Focus on Listed Companies in Kenya, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(3) 1-14 (2020).
S. A. Balasubramanian; G. S. Radhakrishna; P. Sridevi; T. Natarajan; Modeling Corporate Financial Distress using Financial and Non-financial Variables: The Case of Indian Listed Companies, International Journal of Law and Management, 61(3/4) 457-484 (2019).
S. B. Jabeur; Bankruptcy Prediction Using Partial Least Squares Logistic Regression, Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 36 197-202 (2017).
T. Al-Kassar; S. J. Soileau; Financial Performance Evaluation and Bankruptcy Prediction (Failure), Arab Economic and Business Journal, 9(2) 147-155 (2014).
W. H. Beaver; Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure, Journal of Accounting Research, 4 71-111 (1966).

ISSN(P) 2350-0174

ISSN(O) 2456-2378

Journal Content
Browser