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Vol 9, No 3:

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Prediction of Exceedance Days of Air Pollutants using Poisson Hidden Markov Model
Abstract
In recent years, air quality of Chennai Metropolitan City is consistently poor due to the high levels of Particulate Matter (PM) and this pollutant factor, PM10 plays a vital role in the contamination of air pollution, which leads to the enormous environmental risk. PM10 has deleterious effects on human health, especially in the cardiovascular system. In this paper, Poisson Hidden Markov Model is being used to predict the number of exceedance days of PM10 in the Kodungaiyur region of Chennai City. In addition, independent Poisson mixture and stationary Poisson Hidden Markov models with one, two and three states were fitted and their Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values were obtained for model selection. Further, the sequence of hidden states is estimated through the best-fitted model. Finally, the exceedance days of PM10 for the next one year have been forecasted through the hidden states model.
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References
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ISSN(P) 2350-0174

ISSN(O) 2456-2378

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